No. This is not a parody to Jackie Chan’s 1995 Hollywood blockbuster Rumble in the Bronx. Rather, this is about a potential second political tsunami that may hit the country, that will start in Sabah, the Land Below the Wind.

In the 8 March 2008 12th General Election, the ruling Barisan Nasional (BN) was delivered a blow, losing 2/3 parliamentary majority for the first time since 1969, losing the states of Kedah, Penang, Perak and Selangor to Pakatan Rakyat as well as fail to capture Kelantan from the grip of PAS since 1990. The election results have been decribed as a political tsunami.

It is a widely believed that Parti Keadilan Rakyat’s (PKR) de facto leader, Anwar Ibrahim, who was once Deputy Prime Minister between 1993 and 1998, is engineering crossovers of BN MPs, in particular those in Sabah and Sarawak to the Pakatan Rakyat coalition. Anwar claimed that more than 30 MPs have decided to crossover, however, were waiting for the suitable time.

While many BN leaders brushed off Anwar’s claims, some senior BN politicians such as Former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad and Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah have warned that Anwar’s claim might in fact come true.

The BN managed to form the Federal Government with a simple majority, in fact, 8 seats short of holding 2/3 majority, mainly due to the victory of all but 2 BN candidates in Sabah and Sarawak. Without the parliamentary seats from Sabah and Sarawak, BN would not be able to obtain a simple majority. BN only lost the Kota Kinabalu and Bandar Kuching parliamentary seats to DAP.

The new Cabinet lineup announced by the Prime Minister has in one way or another, disappointed BN leaders from the 2 Borneo states, in particular from Sabah. The number of ministers from Sabah and Sarawak in the new Cabinet does not reflect the strength of the government according to states. BN, which lost Selangor and Perak has quite a number of ministers from these 2 states, however, Sabah and Sarawak leaders were only given a few ministerial posts, mostly in not very important portfolios.

The rumble started when Kimanis MP Anifah Aman refused to accept a Deputy Minister, while weeks later Kalabakan MP Ghapur Salleh resigned from his Deputy Minister post. A meeting between the Prime Minister and Sabah BN leaders resulted in the election of Dewan Rakyat Speaker and Deputy Speakers from Sabah and Sarawak.

In recent days, many BN leaders from Sabah voiced out demands to the Federal Government. On Monday, Ghapur accused the BN of practicing double standards while debating the motion of thanks on the royal address in Parliament. He issued a serious warning that BN will suffer greatly if the double standards practice do not stop. He however denied that he is crossing over.

Ghapur and Anifah stole the limelight in the press where both were reported to have said the following respectively:

We (Sabah BN MPs) have never jumped. We can move by simply forming a new party. Then we can decide where we want to sit…here or there”, he said, gesturing in the direction of the opposition and backbenchers. - Ghapur Salleh (BN - Kalabakan)

There is no harm in Barisan Nasional MPs in Sabah defecting to the Opposition. What’s the point of moving to a terrace house if one is already living in a bungalow? However, for some of us, there seems to be no pleasure in living in this bungalow. What’s the point of living in a bungalow if one has to sleep beside the toilet?
- Anifah Aman (BN - Kimanis)

Meanwhile, Elizabeth Looi of The Star reports that SAPP President Yong Teck Lee, who was a Chief Minister under the 2-year rotation system between 1996 to 1998 gave an ultimatum to BN to resolve issues in Sabah.

Excerpts of the news item in The Star:

After August, there will be no guarantee that SAPP members will remain in Barisan, he said.

He however said the 16 Sabah MPs, who were speculated to cross over to Pakatan Rakyat on Wednesday, were not from SAPP.

He added that this did not mean Barisan leaders should rule out the possibility that his members could leave the coalition in the near future.

He said now is the time for Sabah to demand requests from the Federal Government.

“This is the best time for Sabah but it is also the most important time for Barisan to do something for Sabah because if we do not do something, Sabah will be returned to its subservient role after August as September is the fasting month, October is the Hari Raya festivities and December is when the Umno general election will be held.

“If nothing happens, an explosion will happen in January, where the Opposition will come into play,” he told reporters Tuesday in the Parliament lobby here.

Anwar, meanwhile, in a press conference yesterday confirmed that several Members of Parliament from Barisan Nasional (BN) and its component parties will be crossing over soon, according to a news item by Tim Leonard in The Sun.

Statements fueled by BN leaders in Sabah and Anwar’s claim of defections definitely increase the speculation of defections from BN to Pakatan Rakyat will occur soon. Anwar himself claimed that Pakatan Rakyat would be able to form the Federal Government before Malaysia Day on 16 September 2008.